- The Digital Asset Daily
- Posts
- This Could Be Your Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin at These “Cheap” Prices
This Could Be Your Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin at These “Cheap” Prices
A Flood of Demand Will Hit a Wall of Supply
This Could Be Your Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin at These “Cheap” Prices
At today’s price of $72,000, bitcoin looks anything but cheap.
Friends, I’m here to tell you that today’s price could look frightfully cheap in as little as 90 days. That’s because I expect an ocean of new money will come barreling into bitcoin.
That new demand is going to slam head first into the reality of the bitcoin halving. The “halving” (or “Halvening” as some call it) is when the new supply of bitcoin is cut in half.
The halving occurs every four years. The first halving occurred in 2012. The second in 2016. And the third in 2020. The fourth is scheduled on or around April 20.
At the time of this writing, 900 new bitcoin are issued each day. In less than two weeks, that number will get cut to 450 new coins per day.
On average, bitcoin has risen by as much as 1,534% in a little over a year after the previous two halvings.
A Flood of Demand Will Hit a Wall of Supply
This year the halving is coinciding with the biggest liquidity onboarding event bitcoin has ever seen. Of course, I’m talking about the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
For the first time bitcoin is now fully plugged into the traditional financial system. That means ownership, storage and trading of this asset is now an entrenched part of the $461 trillion global financial system.
I cannot overstate how much money bitcoin holders will make from this acceptance of bitcoin by traditional finance.
With traditional assets, you can increase their supply to meet new demand. However, you can’t make more bitcoin outside of its pre-programmed issuance schedule.
That means when the code cuts the new issuance from 900 new bitcoin per day to 450, new bitcoin per day… It won’t matter how much new demand there is. The new issuance will still only be 450 new bitcoin per day.
Let me show you how dire the new supply issue is…
Since the bitcoin ETFs went live on January 11, we’ve seen $12 billion in net inflows into spot bitcoin funds. (Spot means these funds hold actual bitcoin, not a paper claim to bitcoin such as a futures contract).
At the current issuance rate of 900 new coins per day, the demand for bitcoin by the ETFs is outstripping new supply by 3 to 1. That means for every 900 new bitcoin created, ETFs are buying 2,700 bitcoin.
If demand stays the same, after the halving you’ll have 2,700 in daily bitcoin demand but only 450 new coins being issued.
Do the math. If there is no change in demand, the supply demand imbalance will leap from 3 to 1, to 6 to 1.
Think about that.
Now think about this: How ridiculous is it to assume that demand will stay the same?
Of course, demand for BTC ETFs has to go up. The greater population at large is only just beginning to wake up to bitcoin as an investable asset class.
And that’s what brings me to my next wave of new bitcoin buyers.
A Brand New Source of Demand Over the Next 90 Days