Is the Bull Market Over?

Is the Bull Market Over?

No matter how much volatility you go through, it always “feels different this time.”

Look back over the last 25 years. And just marvel at what we investors have had to deal with.

The technology meltdown that caused the Nasdaq to collapse 80% in the 1990s… The 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers… The Great Financial Crisis that sank the S&P 500 58% and caused 10 million Americans to lose their homes… The global pandemic that shut down the entire world in 2020. And a regional banking crisis in 2023.

Now, take a look at the major issue we’re dealing with today: Tariffs.

If tariffs seem tame compared to a global pandemic or housing crisis… That’s because they really are.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume tariffs do cause the price of some items we normally buy to rise. That’s not great.

But is it a financial crisis? No. Is it a banking crisis? No. Is it a depression-era economic extinction-level event? No. It is not.

It might cause a slowdown in consumer spending. It might even trigger a technical recession. But we’re not talking about a 2008–09 redux when millions of people lost their homes, and millions more saw their standard of living hammered lower.

If tariffs did cause a recession, the Federal Reserve would aggressively lower interest rates causing a flood of money to come back into financial assets, boosting their prices right back up.

Yes, we would have to deal with some scary volatility. But so long as you didn’t sell into that volatility, you’d be fine.

Here’s the bottom line: The bearish case isn’t that bad. Unpleasant, yes. But nowhere near the level of economic pain we’ve dealt with in the past.

Now, let’s look at the bullish case.

The Bullish Forecast No One Is Talking About