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- I Told You Not to Buy SpaceX. Here’s What That Saved You
I Told You Not to Buy SpaceX. Here’s What That Saved You
The Real Trade Was Never the Rocket Company
Teeka Tiwari
July 22, 2026
On June 10, two days before SpaceX went public, I made a simple call:
SpaceX is extraordinary… I’m not betting against this company or [Elon Musk]. What I am betting on is this: you’ll be able to own shares at a MUCH cheaper valuation in the future.
I didn’t need a crystal ball to tell you that. I just needed to show you the math. (More on that below.)
SpaceX shares hit a peak of $225.64 a few days after its IPO. As of Tuesday’s close, they were trading at $123.54. That’s a 45% drop from the peak.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share. Tuesday’s closing price sits 8% below that. So even the buyers who got in at the IPO price are sitting on a loss. Not just the ones who chased it at the top.
I’m not saying SpaceX is a bad company. I’m not saying Elon Musk won’t go on to build one of the most dominant businesses in the world.
I’m saying price matters. And during the IPO frenzy, SpaceX never gave you a good one.
So why did this happen? I ran the numbers for you back in June.
SpaceX was targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. That’s almost 94x its revenue, for a company that lost nearly $5 billion last year. Only about 4-5% of its shares were available to trade at listing.
When you combine sky-high hype with a tiny float, you get a stampede of buyers chasing very few available shares. The price gets bid up past any reasonable level.
The early excitement fades, the float eventually expands, and latecomers get stuck holding the bag at prices that no longer make sense.
Don’t get me wrong. Elon Musk built something remarkable with SpaceX. But even a remarkable company can lose you money if you pay too much for its shares.
The Trade That Actually Matters