Can Bitcoin Leap 300% Higher From Here? This Indicator Says Yes

Where Are We in This Bull Market?

Can Bitcoin Leap 300% Higher From Here? This Indicator Says Yes

At the end of the first quarter, bitcoin did something very special.

It’s only done this on four other occasions. And each time it went on to rise at least 300%.

I’ll tell you more about that in a moment. But first, let’s talk about this recent bout of volatility.

How to Stagger Your Bitcoin Buys for Profits

As I write this article, bitcoin is trading around $65,000 – about 11% off its all-time highs set two weeks ago.

Instead of enjoying what I believe to be the early stages of a bull market… Some people are losing their minds and wondering what’s causing the sell off.

Friends, hear me when I tell you this: How you spend your intellectual capital matters.

Asking questions that don’t have definitive answers is a quick way to squander your mental resources. If you can’t think straight, you can’t make good decisions. And if you can’t make good decisions, you'll lose money.

You must understand that bitcoin doesn’t need a reason to be volatile. It just is. That’s the nature of this asset.

Once you completely accept this fact, you can start focusing your mind on more important questions such as…

  • What phase of the bull market are we in?

  • At what price on a pullback should I buy more?

  • How high do I think bitcoin will go during this bull run?

  • Where do I want to take profits?

I’ll tackle those questions below… and show you why – according to one flawless indicator — bitcoin could have at least 300% more upside from here.

Where Are We in This Bull Market?

Let’s tackle the first – and for my money the most important – question: What phase of the bull market are we in?

Back in June of 2023 when bitcoin was trading at $25,000, I said the filing of BlackRock’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application would mark the beginning of a brand new bull market for bitcoin.

Since then, bitcoin has risen by as much as 192%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 20% over that same period.

If you went long last June congratulations. But where does that leave us now?

The next marker I like to look at to determine where we are in a bull market cycle is the date an asset first hit its new all-time high.

On March 5, bitcoin broke above its previous all-time new high of $69,000 set in November 2021. Today bitcoin is trading above $66,000.

There has never been a time in bitcoin’s history when you lost money buying this close to a break above a new all-time high. Typically, you would’ve been profitable within 30 days.

We’re less than a month out from bitcoin’s last new all-time high. This tells me we’re very early on in this particular part of the bull cycle. So the risk is very low compared to other parts of the bull cycle.

That brings us to our next question: At what price do I want to buy more?

Buy The Dips Sell The Rips

As mentioned above, bitcoin is down about 11% right now from its all-time high. This suggests you can buy bitcoin right here, right now… And your odds of making money over the next 30 days and beyond are very high.

But what if it goes lower?

Friends, the way to make a lot of money during a bull market is to have your core position you hold for the big move (more on that in a moment) and a trading position you use to take advantage of volatility.

So I’ll show you how you can stagger your buys to boost your overall returns on your trading position.

In the last bull market, bitcoin experienced five drops between 15% and 20%, three drops between 20% and 30% before bouncing back to make a new high. So for our trading position we want to be buyers on pullbacks and sellers on rallies.

When buying on dips you want to stagger your buy orders. One easy method is to buy on every 10% drop from the high.

Let’s say you have $10,000 allocated to your trading stack. For this example and to keep the math simple) let’s assume bitcoin was trading at $100. A staggered strategy would look like this:

  • On the first 10-point drop, commit 10% of your capital ($1,000)

  • On the second 10-point drop (20% off the high), add 30% of your capital ($3,000)

  • On the third 10-point drop (30% off the high), add 40% of your capital ($4,000)

  • On the fourth 10-point drop (40% off the high), add another 10% of your capital ($1,000)

  • In the extreme case where bitcoin drops another 10 points (50% off the high), add your final 10% of capital ($1,000)

Here’s how it breaks down:

  • Your first buy for $1,000 would be at $90

  • Your second buy for $3,000 would be at $80

  • Your third buy for $4,000 would be at $70

  • Your fourth buy for $1,000 would be at $60

  • Your final buy for $1,000 would be at $50

Under this scenario, you would have an adjusted cost basis of $70.

On just a move back to the old high of $100, you would make a 42% return on your money. If you want to make it even easier for yourself, just buy every 30% pullback and sell on every rally back to the new high.

During the last bull market, you would’ve been able to run this strategy three times and profit from the volatility.

This Indicator Says Bitcoin Will Go Much Higher

At the end of March, bitcoin had its highest all-time weekly, monthly, and quarterly close in history.

This has only happened four times. On each occasion, over the course of the following bull cycle, the smallest up move bitcoin saw was 300%. The biggest was 1,500%.

A 1,500% move would put bitcoin at $1 million per coin.

Now look, that would be amazing. But I’m not looking for $1 million BTC during this cycle. A 300% move would put BTC at $280,000. And that, my friends, is very doable in this cycle.

I feel comfortable calling for BTC to hit $150,000 this cycle. And if that’s “all” it does I’d be ecstatic. That’s why I intend to start taking profits on half my core position at $150,000. And then shed 10% of my remaining position on every $50,000 move up.

I will not catch the peak move. But I’ll get a lot of it.

(One important note I want to make is that I will always seek to have at least 5% of my investable assets held in bitcoin as an inflation hedge.)

The key to having success as an investor is to have a plan. Know what phase of the bull market you are in. Know if and when you’ll buy into a pullback. And know when you will take profits.

You now have a blueprint you can use to rip out a lifetime’s worth of wealth from this brand-new bitcoin bull market.

So stay focused on the big picture, work your plan and go make your money.

Let The Game Come to You!

Big T

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